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2022年，印度移动互联网用户基数的增长急剧放缓

印度电信监管局(Trai)整理的数据显示，在2015-20年入门级智能手机价格上涨导致2g到4g转换放缓的情况下，印度整体互联网用户基数同比增长4.3%，至8.293亿人。

2022年，印度移动互联网用户基数的增长急剧放缓
加尔各答:随着智能手机基础价格的上涨，2022年新的移动互联网用户下降了40-45%，拖累了印度互联网用户基数的增长，这一趋势可能会在2023年继续下去行业专家和分析人士。

Counterpoint研究总监塔伦·帕塔克(Tarun Pathak)表示:“每年使用移动互联网的新用户数量从疫情前的6000万至7000万下降到2022年的3500万至4000万，这导致电信公司可能失去了约3亿美元的额外收入机会，假设额外的2500万移动宽带新用户可以轻松为运营商带来至少1美元的每月ARPU增量。”

2023年，印度互联网用户基数的增长可能会保持低迷，智能手机价格不太可能很快下降。分析师和专家表示，这种情况可能会拖累电信公司今年的收入和每用户平均收入(ARPU)增长水平。

数据由印度电信监管局(Trai)的数据显示，印度整体互联网用户基数在2021年同比增长4.3%，至8.293亿人。2015-20年期间，由于入门级智能手机价格上涨，导致2g - 4g转换放缓，印度互联网用户基数实现了稳定的两位数增长。

Trai的数据显示，去年1月至3月期间，整体互联网用户基数小幅下降(0.5%)至8.2489亿。从2021年12月底(8072万)到2022年6月底(80813万)，无线互联网用户群也几乎停滞不前。

分析师预计，由于零部件价格高企、汇率波动和乌克兰战争，入门级智能手机的价格不太可能降温，这种低迷的增长趋势将持续到2022年和2023年的大部分时间。此外，美国最近限制向中国出口先进半导体和芯片制造设备，可能进一步给全球供应链带来压力。

“智能手机的基础价格可能仍然昂贵，智能手机出货量的下降可能至少持续到2023年6月至7月，这将减缓2G到4G的转换，”他说Nitin索尼他是全球评级机构的高级主管，惠誉．“我们估计，这可能导致电信公司在2023年报告的收入和ARPU增长低于2022年。”

惠誉估计，2023年印度最大的电信公司的收入和ARPU将分别同比增长10.5%和8.2%，而2022年分别为16.4%和12.9%。

Bharti Airtel，依赖Jio沃达丰Idea (Vi)没有回应本报的询问。

在附近的旅馆在去年11月的第二季度财报电话会议上，该公司董事总经理Gopal Vittal表示，自2022年3月以来，半导体价格在6至8个月内持续承压，将入门级智能手机价格从6500卢比推高至1万卢比，这导致功能机升级到智能手机的数量减少了30%。

可以肯定的是，行业专家认为，一旦Reliance Jio和Bharti Airtel在年底前在全国推出5G服务，消费者对智能手机的兴趣可能会有所复苏。

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惠誉的索尼说:“到2023年底，5G在印度全面普及，可能会导致智能手机变得更便宜，这反过来可能会促使许多去年没有使用4G的2G用户直接升级到5G服务。”

里昂证券预计，印度目前的5G智能手机数量为7000万部，并估计到2025年3月，该国的移动数据普及率将进一步提高11个百分点，达到80%。它还估计，在Jio和Airtel在全国范围内推出5G的推动下，到2025年3月，印度的智能手机基数将增长到7亿。

里昂证券(CLSA)在一份报告中表示:“Bharti和Jio早期的5G货币化将由高端移动后付费用户以及移动网络容量的增长引领。”它补充说，5G在印度移动领域的更大优势将是由于更大的无线电波块和更好的频谱效率。

不过，惠誉的索尼预计，5G的商业案例在短期内会受到限制，因为目前的大多数应用都是由4G提供的，而且5G手机在印度的普及率仍然不到5%。他预计，考虑到行业整合期间对盈利能力的关注，印度最大的电信运营商将在2023年提高整体资费。

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\"Growth<\/figure>Kolkata: New mobile internet subscribers fell 40-45% in 2022 following the jump in base smartphone prices, weighing down India\u2019s internet user base growth, a trend likely to continue in 2023, said industry<\/a> experts and analysts.

\u201cThe number of new subscribers using the mobile internet per year plunged from pre-Covid levels of 60-70 million to around 35-40 million in CY2022, which has resulted in telcos potentially losing out on around a $300 million additional revenue opportunity, assuming that the extra 25 million new mobile broadband users would have easily generated at least $1 of incremental monthly ARPU for the operators,\u201d said Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint.

The growth of India\u2019s internet user base is likely to stay subdued in calendar 2023 with smartphone prices unlikely to drop anytime soon. This scenario could potentially drag telcos\u2019 revenue and average revenue per user (ARPU) growth levels in the current year, said the analysts and experts cited.

<\/div><\/div>Data collated by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India<\/a> (Trai) show India\u2019s overall internet user base grew 4.3% on-year in CY2021 to 829.3 million after steady double-digit growth during 2015-20 amid the rising prices of entry-level smartphones that slowed down 2G-to-4G conversion.

Trai data show the overall internet user base fell marginally (0.5%) in the January-March period last year to 824.89 million. The wireless internet user base also remained almost stagnant between end-December 2021 (802.72 million) and end-June 2022 (808.13 million).

Analysts expect the subdued growth trend to continue in 2022 and much of 2023 as prices of entry-level smartphones are unlikely to cool off, thanks to high component prices, currency volatility and the war in Ukraine. In addition, the recent curbs imposed by the US on exports of advanced semiconductors and chip manufacturing gear to China could further stress global supply chains.

\u201cBase smartphone prices are likely to remain expensive and the decline in smartphone shipments could continue at least till June-July, 2023, which would slow down 2G to 4G conversions,\u201d said Nitin Soni<\/a>, senior director at global ratings agency, Fitch<\/a>. \u201cWe estimate this could result in telcos reporting lower revenue and ARPU growth in CY2023 vs CY2022.\u201d

<\/div><\/div>Fitch estimates India\u2019s top telcos to report 10.5% and 8.2% on-year growth in revenue and ARPU, respectively, in 2023 compared with 16.4% and 12.9%, respectively in 2022.

Bharti Airtel<\/a>, Reliance Jio<\/a> and Vodafone Idea (Vi) did not respond to ET\u2019s queries.

At Airtel<\/a>\u2019s fiscal second-quarter earnings call last November, managing director Gopal Vittal had said sustained pressure on semiconductor prices over six to eight months since March 2022 had pushed up entry-level smartphone prices from Rs 6,500 to Rs 10,000, which had led to a 30% reduction in feature phone to smartphone upgrades.

To be sure, sector experts believe there could be some revival in consumer appetite for smartphones once Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel roll out 5G services across the country by the year-end.

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\u201cThe full-fledged arrival of 5G across India by end-2023 could lead to smartphones becoming more affordable, which in turn could prompt many 2G users, who did not go 4G last year, to directly upgrade to 5G services,\u201d said Fitch\u2019s Soni.

CLSA pegs India\u2019s current 5G smartphone base at 70 million and estimates the country\u2019s mobile data penetration to rise a further 11 percentage points to 80% by March 2025. It also estimates India\u2019s smartphone base will grow to 700 million by March 2025, propelled by countrywide 5G rollouts by Jio and Airtel.

\u201cBharti and Jio\u2019s early 5G monetisation would be led by top-end mobile postpaid subscribers alongside increases in their mobile network capacities,\u201d CLSA said in note. It added that 5G\u2019s greater edge in India mobile would be due to larger blocks of airwaves and better spectrum efficiency.

Soni of Fitch, though, expects the 5G business case to be limited in the short term as most of the current applications are comfortably served by 4G, and penetration of 5G handsets in India is still less than 5%. He expects India\u2019s top telcos to raise headline tariffs in CY2023, given the focus on profitability amid industry consolidation.
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