NEW DELHI: Indian telecom industry<\/a> could witness a potential price hike of 15-20% in coming months due to weakening subscribers growth, analysts said, adding that Vodafone Idea<\/a> will be the first telco to hike prices. 分析师称Airtel能够维持其35 - 40%增量4 g用户市场份额这将导致增加3-4mn 3 qfy21e并驱动其4 g用户ARPU 2 - 3%。 新德里:印度电信行业可以见证一个潜在的涨价15 - 20%在未来几个月由于用户增长疲软,分析师称,并补充说吗沃达丰的想法将成为第一个电信上调价格。 NEW DELHI: Indian telecom industry<\/a> could witness a potential price hike of 15-20% in coming months due to weakening subscribers growth, analysts said, adding that Vodafone Idea<\/a> will be the first telco to hike prices.
\"A price hike, which looked uncertain in the last 6-9 months due to the challenging economic scenario, has started to look imminent with weakening subscriber growth across players. Our recent interactions with industry<\/a> experts indicate a potential price hike of 15-20% in the next two months,\" Motilal Oswal<\/a> Financial Services said in a report.
CLSA<\/a> said that delays in floor tariff could force Vodafone Idea to raise prepaid tariff in 3-6 months as the telco stares at a financial crisis in absence of any funding, weak liquidity position and reducing subscriber growth.
Vodafone Idea has hiked tariffs by 7-9% in two plans and for now in one of 22 circles in India. Vodafone Idea postpaid tariffs are now 7% higher versus Bharti Airtel<\/a> and about 60% higher versus Reliance Jio in comparable data plans.
Bharti Airtel is not following Vodafone Idea’s recent postpaid tariff hikes, as they are limited and in select plans. Also, Bharti Airtel has been gaining subscribers and increasing revenue market share, CLSA said.
\"With an intensifying market-share battle, sector floor tariffs will be preferred, in our view. And even if Bharti Airtel does not lead in tariff hikes, it had the best flowthrough of Dec-19 increases and its Arpu is at a 12-24% premium to peers,\" CLSA added.
CLSA said that Vodafone Idea’s select postpaid hikes and mixed signals in prepaid tariffs are not leading Bharti Airtel to follow, especially as it is also gaining subscribers - 10 million in 1HFY21 versus a mere 1 million in FY20) - despite premium tariffs to Reliance Jio, CLSA said.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
![](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>Tariff hike likely before March 2021; Vodafone Idea needs 50% hike to cash breakeven: Report<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>Telecom marketshare battle intensifying, floor tariffs may be preferred: Report<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
Airtel had the best flowthrough of December 2019 hikes as its Arpu is now at a 12-24% premium to peers and the stock is at 6x EV\/Ebitda, which is about a 25% discount to the five-year average, CLSA said.
“With market-share battle intensification, Bharti Airtel at 32% revenue share is gaining (up 1% in 1HFY21). Reliance Jio gained 4% in 1HFY21 vs 20% in the prior two years despite cheaper tariffs; Vodafone Idea is looking to arrest share loss from 3QFY21. Hence at the ground sector, floor tariffs are a better way forward as not only should the rate increase be higher but it is unlikely to disrupt market shares,” CLSA added.
Motilal Oswal said that its channel checks indicated that Airtel continues to gain competitive ground, adding strong 4G subscribers in the festive season, after the recent healthy additions in 2QFY21.
Airtel’s Capex in 2HFY21E will be similar to 1H Capex of ~Rs90b\/Rs110b at the India\/consolidated level. Thus, FY21E Capex should stand at INR180b\/INR220b, which is ~15% lower when compared to FY20 levels, Motilal Oswal noted.
It could further incur a one-time Capex of Rs130bn for spectrum renewal at the reserve price as its spectrum is expected to expire by 2QFY22 and would require an early auction.
Airtel is expected to generate post-interest FCF of Rs64b in FY22E after factoring in the spectrum renewal cost of Rs130b, Motilal concluded.
Both brokerage firms Motilal Oswal and CLSA retained a ‘BUY’ rating for Bharti Airtel at a price of Rs 650 and Rs 505.15, respectively.
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沃达丰主意上调关税15 - 20%;Airtel可能增加2 - 3%的ARPU:分析师
“涨价,这看上去不确定在过去的6 - 9个月由于具有挑战性的经济情况下,已经开始在球员看起来即将削弱用户增长。我们最近的相互作用行业专家表明潜在的涨价15 - 20%在接下来的两个月,“Motilal Oswal金融服务在一份报告中称。
里昂证券(CLSA)说,延迟地板关税可能会迫使沃达丰想法提高预付关税在3 - 6个月电信盯着金融危机没有任何资金,流动性状况和减少用户增长疲软。
Bharti Airtel不是沃达丰的想法最近的邮资已付的关税上调后,因为它们是有限的,在选择的计划。同时,Bharti Airtel已经获得用户和增加收入市场份额,里昂证券(CLSA)说。
“强化市场份额之战,部门地板关税将是首选,在我们看来。即使Bharti Airtel在关税上涨并不领先,它有最好的12月19日增加及其Arpu flowthrough同行在12 - 24%的溢价,”里昂证券(CLSA)补充道。
里昂证券表示,沃达丰的想法的选择提高邮资已付的预付关税和混合信号不是领先Bharti Airtel,尤其是当它也是获得用户- 1000万1 hfy21和仅仅100万年FY20) - - -尽管信实Jio额外关税,里昂证券(CLSA)说。
Airtel flowthrough最好的2019年12月上涨的Arpu现在在12 - 24%的溢价同行和股票6 x EV / Ebitda,大概是5年平均25%的折扣,里昂证券(CLSA)说。
“与市场份额的战斗加剧,Bharti Airtel在32%的收入份额获得1 hfy21 (1%)。依赖Jio上涨4%在1 hfy21 vs便宜20%之前两年,尽管关税;沃达丰的想法是想逮捕3 qfy21市场份额的损失。因此在地面部门,地板关税是一种更好的方式向前不仅应该加息会更高,但不太可能扰乱市场份额,”里昂证券(CLSA)补充道。
Motilal Oswal说,其通道检查表明,Airtel继续获得竞争优势,在节日期间,增加强大的4 g用户最近的健康增加2 qfy21之后。
2 hfy21e Airtel的资本支出将类似的~ 1 h资本支出Rs90b / Rs110b在印度/综合水平。因此,FY21E资本支出应该站在INR180b / INR220b ~ 15% FY20相比,水平较低,Motilal Oswal说。
它可能会进一步导致一次性资本支出Rs130bn频谱更新的保留价格作为其频谱预计2 qfy22到期,需要提前拍卖。
Airtel将产生post-interest自由现金流量的Rs64b FY22E分解后的频谱更新成本Rs130b, Motilal总结道。
里昂证券经纪公司Motilal Oswal和保留的“买入”评级Bharti Airtel Rs 650和Rs的价格505.15,分别。
\"A price hike, which looked uncertain in the last 6-9 months due to the challenging economic scenario, has started to look imminent with weakening subscriber growth across players. Our recent interactions with industry<\/a> experts indicate a potential price hike of 15-20% in the next two months,\" Motilal Oswal<\/a> Financial Services said in a report.
CLSA<\/a> said that delays in floor tariff could force Vodafone Idea to raise prepaid tariff in 3-6 months as the telco stares at a financial crisis in absence of any funding, weak liquidity position and reducing subscriber growth.
Vodafone Idea has hiked tariffs by 7-9% in two plans and for now in one of 22 circles in India. Vodafone Idea postpaid tariffs are now 7% higher versus Bharti Airtel<\/a> and about 60% higher versus Reliance Jio in comparable data plans.
Bharti Airtel is not following Vodafone Idea’s recent postpaid tariff hikes, as they are limited and in select plans. Also, Bharti Airtel has been gaining subscribers and increasing revenue market share, CLSA said.
\"With an intensifying market-share battle, sector floor tariffs will be preferred, in our view. And even if Bharti Airtel does not lead in tariff hikes, it had the best flowthrough of Dec-19 increases and its Arpu is at a 12-24% premium to peers,\" CLSA added.
CLSA said that Vodafone Idea’s select postpaid hikes and mixed signals in prepaid tariffs are not leading Bharti Airtel to follow, especially as it is also gaining subscribers - 10 million in 1HFY21 versus a mere 1 million in FY20) - despite premium tariffs to Reliance Jio, CLSA said.
<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
<\/a><\/figure>Tariff hike likely before March 2021; Vodafone Idea needs 50% hike to cash breakeven: Report<\/a><\/h5><\/div>
<\/a><\/figure>Telecom marketshare battle intensifying, floor tariffs may be preferred: Report<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>
Airtel had the best flowthrough of December 2019 hikes as its Arpu is now at a 12-24% premium to peers and the stock is at 6x EV\/Ebitda, which is about a 25% discount to the five-year average, CLSA said.
“With market-share battle intensification, Bharti Airtel at 32% revenue share is gaining (up 1% in 1HFY21). Reliance Jio gained 4% in 1HFY21 vs 20% in the prior two years despite cheaper tariffs; Vodafone Idea is looking to arrest share loss from 3QFY21. Hence at the ground sector, floor tariffs are a better way forward as not only should the rate increase be higher but it is unlikely to disrupt market shares,” CLSA added.
Motilal Oswal said that its channel checks indicated that Airtel continues to gain competitive ground, adding strong 4G subscribers in the festive season, after the recent healthy additions in 2QFY21.
Airtel’s Capex in 2HFY21E will be similar to 1H Capex of ~Rs90b\/Rs110b at the India\/consolidated level. Thus, FY21E Capex should stand at INR180b\/INR220b, which is ~15% lower when compared to FY20 levels, Motilal Oswal noted.
It could further incur a one-time Capex of Rs130bn for spectrum renewal at the reserve price as its spectrum is expected to expire by 2QFY22 and would require an early auction.
Airtel is expected to generate post-interest FCF of Rs64b in FY22E after factoring in the spectrum renewal cost of Rs130b, Motilal concluded.
Both brokerage firms Motilal Oswal and CLSA retained a ‘BUY’ rating for Bharti Airtel at a price of Rs 650 and Rs 505.15, respectively.
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