Since the 1991 balance of payments<\/a> (BoP) crisis, India has witnessed bouts of economic crisis — current account deficit, inflation, fiscal deficit, banking — of various magnitudes. For the first time in a generation, the country faces a different kind of crisis it’s not used to: a growth crisis. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has forecast an expansion of 5% for the current fiscal, an 11-year low. Depending on where one stands, this could not have come at a better or worse time. For policymakers, it’s a nightmare ahead of the budget. For lobbyists, it’s the right time to push their agenda. 自从1991年国际收支(BoP)危机,印度的经济危机——经常账户赤字,通货膨胀,财政赤字、银行——各种大小。首次在一代,这个国家面临着一种不同的危机不习惯:一个增长的危机。国家统计办公室(NSO)预测当前财政扩张了5%,11年低点。取决于在什么样的立场上,这可能没有在一个更好或更糟。对决策者来说,这是一个噩梦的预算。对游说者来说,这是正确的时间来推动他们的议程。
In keeping with pre-budget tradition, the beauty parade of industrialists, economists, investment managers and other experts has started in earnest. They have identified the cause of the problem and have solutions in hand.
For the industry lobby, it is GST. So, the magic wand is lowering the tax rates so that goods and services become affordable. Economists would say GoI’s imprudent financial management that crowded out private investment is the root cause of all ills.
Investment managers fixated on outperformance on returns from stocks and bonds have identified banks’ risk aversion in doling out loans to corporates and NBFCs as the Gordian Knot. To revive growth, they recommend doing away with dividend distribution tax (DDT) and securities transaction tax.
All of these are beneficial. But they address pockets of the economy. The catch is that GoI’s balance sheet looks more like a debt-laden Indian conglomerate’s than that of a frugal Indian saver. So, borrowing your way out is not an option without a bigger crisis two years down the line. Many solutions are piecemeal. This is the time for a surgery, not band-aids.
At last week’s Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture in Mumbai, Singaporean policymaker Tharman Shanmugaratnam touched upon the ‘big picture’ problem and likely solutions. The problem, according to him, is that ‘statism is still hanging over the economy’. And to overcome it, there is a need to ‘reorient the role of the government’. Approach to economic policies has changed substantially since 1991. But it remains limited to private sector freedom. Rules governing financial resources utilisation and the State’s visible hand in business via the Leviathan public sector banks (PSBs) and metal makers remains.
Financial repression has been less talked about. Investment rules for Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), insurers and banks tailored to fund government borrowing needs to change. More than half the savings through these vehicles end up funding the state budget. It’s a double whammy. It eats up investments, and deprives savers higher income in their retired life.
Some of the biggest buyers of Indian assets are retirees from Canada and Scandinavian countries. The likes of Canadian Pension Fund, Blackstone and GIC of Singapore are earning as high as 14-16% from Indian roads and power transmission assets. On the other hand, Indian pensioners earn 6-7% from government bonds. Letting these long-term funds to structure and buy income-earning assets could provide higher returns for savers and relieve GoI from stretching its balance sheet. Slowing growth has led to calls of higher GST. But higher indirect tax rate not only conflicts with a record low corporate tax rate, but would also worsen already weak demand.
When options are limited, ‘reorienting’ the State’s priorities is applicable to the businesses it owns. When capital was scarce, taxpayer money was funnelled into building steel factories, power plants, telephones and even tractors and watches. When distressed corporations and individuals sell off assets for a better financial future, why should it be any different for a State?
Over the years, many of these have lost value because of private competition. But some still carry value, and could turn bigger like Hindustan Zinc<\/a>, or VSNL that is now with the Tatas. The longer the State holds on to these corporations, the steeper the value erosion for entities like Air India<\/a>, BSNL and PSBs.
Privatisation<\/a> not only raises resources for the State to provide a social safety net, but it also frees up space for it to create capacity in social infrastructure.
Attempts so far have been half-hearted. Instead of merely conducting accounting exercises — like selling Hindustan Petroleum to ONGC, or Power Finance Corp buying Rural Electricity Corp — to fill the budget gap, the aim should be to transfer private resources to the State through outright sale.
Monetisation of assets first came up during the BoP crisis, and finance minister Manmohan Singh<\/a> began by selling small stakes in State-run companies. It can’t be the same today. This may be the time to complete the circle with a determined policy<\/a> to exit businesses, leaving it to entrepreneurs while the State provides better schools, hospitals and retirement plans.
Views expressed here are the author's own, and not Economictimes.com's<\/em>
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行业游说,销售税。魔杖是降低税率,使商品和服务成为负担得起的。经济学家会说GoI轻率的财务管理,挤出私人投资是所有问题的根源。
投资经理专注于表现从股票和债券收益已经确定了银行发放贷款的风险规避企业和nbfc戈尔迪之结。恢复经济增长,他们建议取消股息分配税收(DDT)和证券交易税。
这些都是有益的。但他们解决经济的口袋。捕获是GoI资产负债表看上去更像是一个负债累累的印度企业集团的比一个节俭的印度储蓄者。所以,借用了你的出路不是一个选择没有一个更大的危机两年。许多解决方案都是小打小闹。这是手术的时间,不是创可贴。
在上周的Suresh Tendulkar纪念演讲在孟买、新加坡政策制定者尚达曼提到了“大局”问题及可能的解决方案。这个问题,根据他的说法,就是“国家主义仍笼罩在经济”。克服它,需要重新定位政府的角色。方法自1991年以来已大幅改变经济政策。但仍局限于私人部门的自由。规则的金融资源利用率和政府“看得见的手”通过利维坦公共部门在商业银行(公安局)和金属制造商仍然存在。
金融压制谈论。员工公积金投资规则组织(EPFO),保险公司和银行根据基金政府借贷需要改变。通过这些车辆节约一半以上的国家预算资金。这是一个双重打击。它吃起来投资,剥夺了储户高收入在他们的退休生活。
印度资产的一些最大的买家是来自加拿大的退休人员和斯堪的纳维亚国家。加拿大养老基金、百仕通(Blackstone)和新加坡政府投资公司新加坡收入高达14 - 16%从印度公路和输电资产。另一方面,印度的养老金领取者从政府债券获得6 - 7%。让这些长期资金结构和购买创收资产可以为储户提供更高的回报和缓解GoI伸展其资产负债表。经济增长放缓导致更高的商品及服务税的计划。但较高的间接税率不仅冲突创纪录的低企业税率,但也会恶化已经疲软的需求。
当选择是有限的,“调整”状态的优先级是适用于企业。资本稀缺时,纳税人的钱被汇集到建筑钢工厂、发电厂、电话甚至拖拉机和手表。当陷入困境的公司和个人对未来更好的金融出售资产,为什么它对一个国家有什么不同吗?
多年来,许多这些已经失去了价值,因为私人竞争。但是有些人仍携带价值,可能会更大印度斯坦锌或VSNL现在再见。国家持有这些公司的时间越长,越陡峭侵蚀等实体价值印度航空公司BSNL和公安局。
私有化不仅提出了资源为国家提供社会安全网,但是它也为它腾出空间来创建社会基础设施的能力。
目前为止已经尝试半心半意。而不是仅仅进行会计练习——比如印度石油卖给印度石油天然气公司,或电力财务公司购买农村电力公司——填补预算缺口,其目的应该是私人资源转移到国家通过直接出售。
货币化的资产首先出现在防喷器危机期间,和财政部长曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)在国有企业开始通过出售少数股权。今天不能是相同的。这可能是确定的时间来完成圆政策退出企业,企业家,而国家提供了更好的学校,医院和退休计划。
此处仅是作者自己的观点,而不是Economictimes.com的
Since the 1991 balance of payments<\/a> (BoP) crisis, India has witnessed bouts of economic crisis — current account deficit, inflation, fiscal deficit, banking — of various magnitudes. For the first time in a generation, the country faces a different kind of crisis it’s not used to: a growth crisis. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has forecast an expansion of 5% for the current fiscal, an 11-year low. Depending on where one stands, this could not have come at a better or worse time. For policymakers, it’s a nightmare ahead of the budget. For lobbyists, it’s the right time to push their agenda.
In keeping with pre-budget tradition, the beauty parade of industrialists, economists, investment managers and other experts has started in earnest. They have identified the cause of the problem and have solutions in hand.
For the industry lobby, it is GST. So, the magic wand is lowering the tax rates so that goods and services become affordable. Economists would say GoI’s imprudent financial management that crowded out private investment is the root cause of all ills.
Investment managers fixated on outperformance on returns from stocks and bonds have identified banks’ risk aversion in doling out loans to corporates and NBFCs as the Gordian Knot. To revive growth, they recommend doing away with dividend distribution tax (DDT) and securities transaction tax.
All of these are beneficial. But they address pockets of the economy. The catch is that GoI’s balance sheet looks more like a debt-laden Indian conglomerate’s than that of a frugal Indian saver. So, borrowing your way out is not an option without a bigger crisis two years down the line. Many solutions are piecemeal. This is the time for a surgery, not band-aids.
At last week’s Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture in Mumbai, Singaporean policymaker Tharman Shanmugaratnam touched upon the ‘big picture’ problem and likely solutions. The problem, according to him, is that ‘statism is still hanging over the economy’. And to overcome it, there is a need to ‘reorient the role of the government’. Approach to economic policies has changed substantially since 1991. But it remains limited to private sector freedom. Rules governing financial resources utilisation and the State’s visible hand in business via the Leviathan public sector banks (PSBs) and metal makers remains.
Financial repression has been less talked about. Investment rules for Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), insurers and banks tailored to fund government borrowing needs to change. More than half the savings through these vehicles end up funding the state budget. It’s a double whammy. It eats up investments, and deprives savers higher income in their retired life.
Some of the biggest buyers of Indian assets are retirees from Canada and Scandinavian countries. The likes of Canadian Pension Fund, Blackstone and GIC of Singapore are earning as high as 14-16% from Indian roads and power transmission assets. On the other hand, Indian pensioners earn 6-7% from government bonds. Letting these long-term funds to structure and buy income-earning assets could provide higher returns for savers and relieve GoI from stretching its balance sheet. Slowing growth has led to calls of higher GST. But higher indirect tax rate not only conflicts with a record low corporate tax rate, but would also worsen already weak demand.
When options are limited, ‘reorienting’ the State’s priorities is applicable to the businesses it owns. When capital was scarce, taxpayer money was funnelled into building steel factories, power plants, telephones and even tractors and watches. When distressed corporations and individuals sell off assets for a better financial future, why should it be any different for a State?
Over the years, many of these have lost value because of private competition. But some still carry value, and could turn bigger like Hindustan Zinc<\/a>, or VSNL that is now with the Tatas. The longer the State holds on to these corporations, the steeper the value erosion for entities like Air India<\/a>, BSNL and PSBs.
Privatisation<\/a> not only raises resources for the State to provide a social safety net, but it also frees up space for it to create capacity in social infrastructure.
Attempts so far have been half-hearted. Instead of merely conducting accounting exercises — like selling Hindustan Petroleum to ONGC, or Power Finance Corp buying Rural Electricity Corp — to fill the budget gap, the aim should be to transfer private resources to the State through outright sale.
Monetisation of assets first came up during the BoP crisis, and finance minister Manmohan Singh<\/a> began by selling small stakes in State-run companies. It can’t be the same today. This may be the time to complete the circle with a determined policy<\/a> to exit businesses, leaving it to entrepreneurs while the State provides better schools, hospitals and retirement plans.
Views expressed here are the author's own, and not Economictimes.com's<\/em>
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