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When firms floated the idea of expanding access to high-speed internet through satellite<\/a> constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO<\/a>), analysts expected only two or three companies would succeed.
\"But the number of players keeps growing,\" Caleb Henry, research director at Quilty Analytics, told AFP at the annual SATELLITE conference in Washington.
He said there are now at least eight companies vying to launch or complete their LEO constellations, including early entrants SpaceX and OneWeb, which could see a ballooning number of objects in orbit.
Amazon alone hopes to launch over 3,200 satellites as part of its stealthy \"Kuiper<\/a>\" project.
But governments are also keen to join the rush.
China plans to launch 13,000 satellites as part of its GuoWang constellation, while Canada's Telesat will add 300 and German start-up Rivada<\/a> is eyeing 600.
That will be in addition to the European Union's Iris<\/a> project -- 170 satellites -- and the 300-500 satellites planned to be launched by the US military's Space Development Agency<\/a>.
When it comes to the satellite constellation<\/a> game, \"people underestimated how sovereign interests would get involved,\" Henry said.
Sustainability in space:<\/strong> While around 120 satellites were launched in all of 2012, in just the first two months of this year, almost 380 were put into orbit.
The total number of LEO satellites should rise to about 24,500 over the next decade, with more than half of them for the three largest constellations, according to forecasts by Euroconsult.
Henry believes there is an open question over how the market will digest all this added capacity.
Mark Dankberg, president of satellite communications firm Viasat -- which operates in the much higher geostationary orbit -- -- said he would be interested in entering the LEO market, but doesn't want big players in the space industry to crowd out competitors.
\"We're interested in LEO, the thing we're concerned about is leaving enough competition in the market,\" Dankberg said.
He also warned about the issue of sustainability -- with so many objects in orbit, risks increase of collisions, spreading debris, and frequencies becoming overloaded.
The largest player by far in LEO is Elon Musk's SpaceX, which has already launched nearly 3,600 satellites and in December received authorization to deploy 7,500 of its planned 30,000-satellite second generation constellation.
Ukraine gas pedal:<\/strong> Starlink<\/a>'s one million customers is still second place to the lesser-known Hughes, also a US-based operator but whose satellites, like Viasat, are much larger and fly in geostationary orbit.
Oneweb, the British operator in the process of being acquired by Eutelsat, completed its penultimate launch in early March and is expected to have completed its 650-satellite constellation by the end of the month.
The head of Amazon's Kuiper project, Dave Limp, said they will launch their first two prototypes in May and are \"on schedule to have over half of our constellation up by mid-2026,\" a requirement to keep its rights to certain frequencies.
But when it comes to government-sponsored projects, such as the EU's Iris, \"commercial utility comes second.\"
\"The idea is... working together on defense,\" Henry said of Iris.
He attributes the newfound momentum behind the project to the war in Ukraine, where Starlink has been used by Kyiv's forces and civilians to stay connected despite strikes to the country's telecom infrastructure.
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当公司提出扩大高速互联网卫星星座在低地球轨道(利奥),分析师预期只有两个或三个公司会成功。
“但是球员的数量持续增长,”亨利,迦勒研究主管奎尔蒂分析,年度卫星会议在华盛顿告诉法新社。
他说现在有至少八个公司竞相推出或完成LEO星座,包括早期进入者SpaceX和OneWeb,可以看到一个不断膨胀的在轨道上的对象数。
亚马逊仅希望在3200年发射卫星的秘密”柯伊伯”项目。
但政府也渴望加入。
中国计划在13000年发射卫星GuoWang星座的一部分,而加拿大的通信卫星将增加300,德国启动Rivada是600年盯上。
这将是除了欧盟虹膜项目——170年卫星和300 - 500年的卫星计划是由美国军方发起的空间发展机构。
当涉及到卫星星座游戏”,人们低估了主权利益如何参与,”亨利说。
可持续发展空间:虽然在120年卫星发射的2012年,仅在今年头两个月,近380人被送入轨道。
LEO卫星的总数应该上升到大约24500在未来十年,其中一半以上的三大星座,据分析家。给出的预测
亨利相信有一个悬而未决的问题在市场将如何消化这一切增加容量。
卫星通信公司的总裁马克•Dankberg Viasat公司——在更高的地球静止轨道——表示,他将进入狮子座市场很感兴趣,但不希望大玩家在航天工业排挤竞争对手。
“我们感兴趣的是狮子座,我们关心的是留下足够的市场竞争,“Dankberg说。
他还对可持续发展问题的警告——如此多的对象在轨道上,风险增加的碰撞,传播碎片,和频率变得超载。
狮子座是最大的球员迄今为止伊隆麝香SpaceX,已经发射了将近3600颗卫星,7500年12月收到授权部署计划30000 -第二代卫星星座。
乌克兰油门: 我们一百万客户不为人知的休斯仍然是第二名,美国运营商,但其卫星,Viasat公司一样,是更大的和在地球静止轨道飞行。
英国运营商Oneweb被欧洲通信卫星公司,收购的过程中完成了倒数第二次发射3月初,预计完成650年底卫星星座。
亚马逊的柯伊伯项目负责人戴夫一瘸一拐地表示,他们将推出5月前两个原型,“按计划有超过一半的星座在2026年年中,“要求保持一定频率的权利。
但当谈到政府资助的项目,如欧盟的虹膜,“商业效用。”
“我们的想法是……虹膜的共同努力防守,”亨利说。
他属性项目战争背后的新势头在乌克兰,我们在基辅的部队和平民用来保持联系尽管袭击该国的电信基础设施。
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