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Industry<\/a> experts are divided over the likely outcome of the sector heading towards a duopoly with two private telcos-Reliance Jio<\/a> and Bharti Airtel<\/a> plus one PSU- BSNL<\/a> with a limited reach. While others are banking their hopes with the government stepping in with some sort of relief measure such as allowing staggered payments over years.
New Street research believes that a two-player outcome by far is the most likely outcome due to three reasons- the government unilaterally will not provide any relief to VIL, Vodafone Plc will not break the self-imposed ring fence of further investment in India and the curative petition examined by telcos is highly unlikely to be successful.
“Since Vodafone does not have a way to raise $7bn we are almost certainly headed towards a 2-player market, which is very positive for Bharti Airtel<\/a>’, New Street Research said in a report.
While Vodafone Idea<\/a> is reeling under the debt of Rs 53,000 crores as AGR<\/a> payment, Bharti Airtel is better financially placed to pay its statutory dues of Rs 35,000, analysts believe.
However, brokerage firm IIFL Securities<\/a> proposed a different outlook by saying that the government is likely to spreads out the payments over a long period (10-20 years) to avoid pushing VIL into the NCLT.
“The consequence of no action by the government would definitely include a major hit to government revenues (Rs910bn from VIL in old spectrum dues, plus this AGR penalty), a significant hit to the banking system, and a reputation hit for India as an investment destination,” it said in a report.
Edelweiss Research described the situation as collateral damage for Bharti Infratel which cannot escape the repercussions of the potential change in market structure.
“A further potential consolidation of telecom operators will have second-order effects on Bharti Infratel, as its tenancies will get impacted,” it said.
Bank of America Global Research<\/a> remains optimistic about the outcomes of the curative petition as the case effects 300+ million citizens, GDP of the country and harm the future of a strategically important sector in the country.
“Our base-case view remains that government could still help sector as it wants to retain a 3 player structure; hopes of a favorable outcome from a potential curative petition remain,” BoA Global Research said in a report.
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- Telecom乐动扑克News
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政府救济唯一的希望,否则电信业走向垄断:分析师
世界上第二大电信行业的未来安装用户数超过12亿,占了8%,印度的GDP增长遇到障碍时,解雇后审查请愿调整总收入(AGR)最高法院周四。
行业专家分歧行业走向的可能的结果与两家私人telcos-Reliance双头垄断Jio和Bharti Airtel加上一个事业单位,BSNL与一个有限的范围。而另一些则银行他们的希望与政府介入等一些救济措施允许交错多年来支付。
新街研究认为两人的结果到目前为止最可能的结果是由于三个原因——政府单方面将不会提供任何救济维尔,沃达丰股价不会打破自我围栅进一步投资在印度和治疗的请愿书被电信公司是高度不太可能成功。
“因为沃达丰没有办法筹集70亿美元我们几乎肯定会走向一个双人的市场,这是非常积极的Bharti Airtel”,新街研究在一份报告中称。
而沃达丰的想法饱受债务的Rs 53000卢比吗AGR付款,Bharti Airtel更好财政支付法定会费的Rs 35000,分析师认为。
然而,经纪公司IIFL证券提出了不同的看法,说政府可能会扩散支付长期(10 - 20年),以避免把维尔NCLT。
“政府不采取行动的结果肯定会包括一个主要影响政府收入(Rs910bn从维尔在古谱费,加上这个AGR点球),银行系统遭受严重冲击,和印度作为投资目的地的声誉了,”在一份报告中称。
雪绒花研究形势描述为间接损害鼓吹他不能逃避潜在的影响市场结构的变化。
“进一步潜在整合电信运营商将二阶效应的鼓吹,作为其占有权会受到影响,”它说。
美国银行全球研究仍然乐观的结果治疗+ 300公民请愿书的影响,国家的国内生产总值和伤害的未来具有重要战略意义的行业。
“我们的基本情况的看法仍然是,政府仍然可以帮助部门希望保留3的球员结构;希望良好的结果从一个潜在的治疗请愿书依然存在,”美国银行全球研究中心的一份报告中说。
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