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政府决定将沃达丰想法的利息费股权让电信远离NCLT:分析师
分析师称Vi将面临严峻挑战的资金年度频谱支付四年暂停结束后在2024 - 25,除非其每用户平均收入(ARPU)超过翻倍到300卢比。六世的ARPU,关键绩效指标,是一个温和的Rs 131年底的2022年9月。
Vi股价周一收盘上涨19.88%,至8.26卢比在疯牛病——当天跳超过24%——政府上周五同意把电信的16133 .18卢比应计利息延迟调整总收入(AGR)会费到股本每股10卢比。此举是政府保证收到后六世的推动者,他们致力于电信和会带来必要的资金。
印度塔股票也收高近13% 161.95 Rs疯牛病,因为投资者预期,会费转换将帮助Vi一些现有的银行债务再融资,并使它清楚当前费塔公司的100%。亏损的Vi的健康对印度河塔至关重要的长期金融稳定自tower-co电信占40%以上的收入。
以来这是费转换成股本金额约16100卢比Vi削减债务,这是几乎7%的电信高达2.2十万的卢比净债务,不会导致任何直接储蓄在自由现金流量,高盛(Goldman Sachs)说。
分析师称Vi将面临严峻挑战的资金年度频谱支付四年暂停结束后在2024 - 25,除非其每用户平均收入(ARPU)超过翻了Rs 300。六世的ARPU,关键绩效指标,是一个温和的Rs 131年底的2022年9月。
不过,分析师表示,Vi将继续在筹集资金面临挑战,除非政府也需要呼吁转换主要费(Vi的政府总债务)股本四年暂停结束后在2024 - 25所示。六世的政府总债务约为1.89十万的卢比挂钩后的最新转换延迟应计利息AGR费为股权。
“直到有明确政府是否将行使期权的Vi的主要费转化为股本FY26 / FY27,导致(进一步)显著稀释现有股东——英国的沃达丰(Vodafone)和印度的Aditya Birla集团(ABG)——电信可能会发现很难筹集新的资金,”高盛(Goldman Sachs)说。
六世的最新转换后的应计利息(AGR费)为股权,政府将单一股东在电信33.14%的股份。英国的沃达丰(Vodafone)和印度的ABG,现在自己的分别为47.61%和27.38%,将转换后的电信的31.7%和18.2%。
沃达丰想法伙伴摩托罗拉,使5 g智能手机访问
”协会,摩托罗拉已成功测试了其最新的和最流行的智能手机型号3350 - 3400 MHz频段Vi在新德里5 g网络,“电信在一份声明中说。
摩根大通(JP Morgan)说,当前的转换提供了一个生命线Vi并帮助它筹集一些资金支付给供应商的关键像印度塔和投资4 g和5 g资本支出。“Vi应该能够支付这通过定期现金流生成8500卢比现金Ebitda年度运行速度的基础上,”它说
不过,美银证券表示,尽管当前的政府将大大减少任何风险Vi将国家公司法法庭(NCLT),纤维的电信投资明显不足,5 g和核心电信下文它将至少6 - 8美元投资缩小收入差距。
“有限的能见度在任何大规模注资,我们预计Airtel和Vi失去市场份额依赖Jio,尤其是在同行开始改善5 g网络,"美银证券。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示,Vi将需要大量融资或关税增加或改善其竞争定位。“Vi的Ebitda将上升5.5 x与目前的水平,或由2.4 x ARPU (Rs 356),公司的FCF-neutral FY27开始,”它说。
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<\/figure>Kolkata: The government\u2019s decision to convert Vodafone Idea<\/a>\u2019s accrued interest into equity is a lifeline of sorts and sharply reduces the risks of the telecom operator getting dragged to the bankruptcy court anytime soon, said analysts. Shares of Vi closed 19.88% higher at Rs 8.26 on Monday on the BSE -- jumping over 24% intra-day -- after the government agreed last Friday to convert the telco\u2019s Rs 16,133.18 crore accrued interest on deferred adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues into equity at Rs 10 a share. The move had come after the government received an assurance from Vi\u2019s promoters that they were committed to the telco and would bring in the necessary funds.
Indus Towers<\/a> shares too ended nearly 13% higher at Rs 161.95 on BSE amid expectations that the dues conversion would help Vi get some existing bank debt refinanced and enable it to clear 100% of its current dues to the tower company. The health of loss-making Vi is critical for Indus Towers\u2019 long-term financial stability since the telco accounts for more than 40% of the tower-co's revenue.
<\/div><\/div>However, the loss-making Vi is likely to face an annual shortfall of about Rs 24,700 crore ($3 billion) in free cash flows (FCF) from 2026-27, once spectrum payments resume, said analysts.
This is since the dues conversion into equity amounts to about Rs 16,100 crore debt reduction for Vi, which is barely 7% of the telco\u2019s whopping Rs 2.2 lakh crore net debt and won\u2019t result in any immediate savings in FCF, said Goldman Sachs.
Analysts said Vi would face serious challenges in funding its annual spectrum payments after the four-year moratorium ends in 2024-25 unless its average revenue per user (ARPU<\/a>) more than doubles to over Rs 300. Vi\u2019s ARPU, a key performance metric, was a modest Rs 131 at the end of September 2022.
Analysts, though, said Vi would continue to face challenges in raising cash unless the government takes a call on also converting the principal dues (out of Vi\u2019s total government debt) into equity after the four-year moratorium ends in 2024-25. Vi\u2019s total government debt is pegged at about Rs 1.89 lakh crore after the latest conversion of accrued interest on deferred AGR dues<\/a> into equity.
\u201cUntil there is clarity on whether the government will exercise the option of converting Vi\u2019s principal dues into equity in FY26\/FY27, which could result in (further) significant dilution for existing shareholders \u2013 UK\u2019s Vodafone and India\u2019s Aditya Birla Group (ABG) \u2013 the telco could find it difficult to raise new capital,\u201d said Goldman Sachs.
This is since the dues conversion into equity amounts to about Rs 16,100 crore debt reduction for Vi, which is barely 7% of the telco\u2019s whopping Rs 2.2 lakh crore net debt and won\u2019t result in any immediate savings in FCF, said Goldman Sachs.
Analysts said Vi would face serious challenges in funding its annual spectrum payments after the four-year moratorium ends in 2024-25 unless its average revenue per user (ARPU<\/a>) more than doubles to over Rs 300. Vi\u2019s ARPU, a key performance metric, was a modest Rs 131 at the end of September 2022.
Analysts, though, said Vi would continue to face challenges in raising cash unless the government takes a call on also converting the principal dues (out of Vi\u2019s total government debt) into equity after the four-year moratorium ends in 2024-25. Vi\u2019s total government debt is pegged at about Rs 1.89 lakh crore after the latest conversion of accrued interest on deferred AGR dues<\/a> into equity.
\u201cUntil there is clarity on whether the government will exercise the option of converting Vi\u2019s principal dues into equity in FY26\/FY27, which could result in (further) significant dilution for existing shareholders \u2013 UK\u2019s Vodafone and India\u2019s Aditya Birla Group (ABG) \u2013 the telco could find it difficult to raise new capital,\u201d said Goldman Sachs.
<\/div><\/div>The global brokerage said while the government had said in January 2022 that it would look to sell its stake in Vi at an appropriate time to realise the due amounts, it had not clarified whether such a stake could be sold to a potential new entrant.
After the latest conversion of Vi\u2019s accrued interest (on AGR dues) into equity, the government will be the single-largest shareholder in the telco with a 33.14% stake. UK\u2019s Vodafone and India\u2019s ABG, which now own 47.61% and 27.38% respectively, will own 31.7% and 18.2% in the telco after conversion.
After the latest conversion of Vi\u2019s accrued interest (on AGR dues) into equity, the government will be the single-largest shareholder in the telco with a 33.14% stake. UK\u2019s Vodafone and India\u2019s ABG, which now own 47.61% and 27.38% respectively, will own 31.7% and 18.2% in the telco after conversion.