KOLKATA: Any steps taken by the government towards a financial bailout of Vodafone Idea<\/a> (VIL) ultimately won’t be enough for the struggling telco to compete effectively against Reliance Jio Infocomm and Bharti Airtel<\/a>, analysts said. 加尔各答:采取任何措施,政府对金融救助沃达丰的想法(维尔)最终是不够的挣扎对信实电信有效竞争Jio Infocomm和Bharti Airtel,分析师表示。 KOLKATA: Any steps taken by the government towards a financial bailout of Vodafone Idea<\/a> (VIL) ultimately won’t be enough for the struggling telco to compete effectively against Reliance Jio Infocomm and Bharti Airtel<\/a>, analysts said.
“The government will find it too expensive to provide a large enough fix needed to prop up VIL for anything other than the medium-term,” Deutsche Bank<\/a> said in a note seen by ET.
The German investment bank said, “The Aditya Birla Group<\/a> (one of VIL’s co-promoters) may even consider getting Vodafone Idea to go into bankruptcy on the chance that it may be able to repurchase the rump of the business.”
It added that this was an “ambiguous area” with the government wanting to avoid promoters buying assets of their failed companies for fear of regulatory arbitrage, even though when it comes to self-declared bankruptcies, the rules are not entirely clear.
Vodafone Idea faces over Rs 53,000 crore in AGR-related statutory dues, and its chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla<\/a> has said the company will shut down without government or judicial relief.
According to Deutsche Bank, Vodafone Idea needs more large price hikes, considerable government relief and its market share holding fairly firm to survive. “But we believe it will get two out of these three (requirements) at best, which won’t be enough.”
Under the circumstances, analysts see telecom market leader Jio pushing for market share gains and aggressive customer additions in a sector rapidly evolving into a private duopoly over the next 9-12 months.
CLSA estimates Jio’s operating income doubling in two years to Rs 52,400 crore by when its mobile user base is also slated to swell to 500 million, propelled by a mix of tariff hikes and accelerated market share gains.
“Jio’s Ebitda to double by FY22 to Rs 52,400 crore ($7.4 billion) and pegs the enterprise value of its mobile business at $66 billion,” the brokerage said.
Jio added 14.8 million customers in the fiscal third quarter, and its user base stood at 370 million at the end of December.
\n<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
![](\"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/ettelecom-default.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>AGR verdict: Vodafone Idea’s competitive ability to deteriorate, says Moody’s<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
Analysts expect Jio’s 35% tariff hike last month to start driving revenue growth for the telco by the fiscal fourth quarter, and its average revenue per user (APRU) — a key performance metric — is estimated to jump over 31% to ?168 by FY22 from Rs 128 reported in the October-December period, FY20.
CLSA estimates 60% of Jio’s revenue growth to be led by the tariff hikes and the balance 40% by market share gains.
Morgan Stanley<\/a> said Jio, with its low 4G network utilisation and large spectrum footprint, can also potentially on board a large base of subscribers if the telecom industry<\/a> consolidates into a two-player market.
Deutsche Bank said Jio should also be able to increase its spectrum share afford-ably in the upcoming 5G auction, especially with at least one of its competitors (read: VIL) in financial peril”.
\n\n
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“政府将发现它太贵了,提供一个足够大的修复需要支撑维尔中期以外,“德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在一份报告中称等。
德国投资银行说:“Aditya Birla集团(维尔的co-promoters之一)甚至可能考虑沃达丰想法进入破产的机会可以回购业务的臀部。”
沃达丰想法面临超过53000卢比AGR-related法定费,和它的主席Kumar Mangalam贝拉表示,该公司将关闭没有政府或司法救济。
据德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、沃达丰(Vodafone)想法需要更大的价格上涨,政府救济和其市场份额持有相当可观的公司才能生存。“但我们相信它将会得到两个这三个(需求)在最好的情况下,这是不够的。”
在这种情况下,分析师认为电信市场领导者Jio推动市场份额和积极的客户添加在行业迅速发展成为私人垄断未来9 - 12个月。
里昂证券估计Jio的营业收入在两年内翻倍到52400卢比当移动用户也将膨胀到5亿年,推动关税上涨和加速市场份额。
“Jio Ebitda双FY22到52400卢比(74亿美元)和挂钩移动业务的企业价值为660亿美元,“经纪说。
Jio第三财政季度增加了1480万个客户,和它的用户群站在3.7亿年12月底。
分析师预计Jio 35%的关税上调上个月开始推动收入增长的第四财政季度电信,和它的每用户平均收入(APRU)——一个关键性能指标——据估计,超过31%跳到? 168年FY22从Rs 128年10期报道,FY20。
里昂证券估计Jio 60%的收入增长是由关税上涨,其余40%的市场份额。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)Jio表示,其4 g网络利用率低,大型光谱足迹,也可能上一大群如果电信用户行业合并成一个双人的市场。
德意志银行表示Jio还应该能够增加其频谱共享afford-ably即将到来的5 g拍卖,尤其是至少有一个竞争对手(阅读:维尔)在金融危机”。
“The government will find it too expensive to provide a large enough fix needed to prop up VIL for anything other than the medium-term,” Deutsche Bank<\/a> said in a note seen by ET.
The German investment bank said, “The Aditya Birla Group<\/a> (one of VIL’s co-promoters) may even consider getting Vodafone Idea to go into bankruptcy on the chance that it may be able to repurchase the rump of the business.”
It added that this was an “ambiguous area” with the government wanting to avoid promoters buying assets of their failed companies for fear of regulatory arbitrage, even though when it comes to self-declared bankruptcies, the rules are not entirely clear.
Vodafone Idea faces over Rs 53,000 crore in AGR-related statutory dues, and its chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla<\/a> has said the company will shut down without government or judicial relief.
According to Deutsche Bank, Vodafone Idea needs more large price hikes, considerable government relief and its market share holding fairly firm to survive. “But we believe it will get two out of these three (requirements) at best, which won’t be enough.”
Under the circumstances, analysts see telecom market leader Jio pushing for market share gains and aggressive customer additions in a sector rapidly evolving into a private duopoly over the next 9-12 months.
CLSA estimates Jio’s operating income doubling in two years to Rs 52,400 crore by when its mobile user base is also slated to swell to 500 million, propelled by a mix of tariff hikes and accelerated market share gains.
“Jio’s Ebitda to double by FY22 to Rs 52,400 crore ($7.4 billion) and pegs the enterprise value of its mobile business at $66 billion,” the brokerage said.
Jio added 14.8 million customers in the fiscal third quarter, and its user base stood at 370 million at the end of December.
\n<\/p>Read also<\/h4>
<\/a><\/figure>AGR verdict: Vodafone Idea’s competitive ability to deteriorate, says Moody’s<\/a><\/h5><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n
Analysts expect Jio’s 35% tariff hike last month to start driving revenue growth for the telco by the fiscal fourth quarter, and its average revenue per user (APRU) — a key performance metric — is estimated to jump over 31% to ?168 by FY22 from Rs 128 reported in the October-December period, FY20.
CLSA estimates 60% of Jio’s revenue growth to be led by the tariff hikes and the balance 40% by market share gains.
Morgan Stanley<\/a> said Jio, with its low 4G network utilisation and large spectrum footprint, can also potentially on board a large base of subscribers if the telecom industry<\/a> consolidates into a two-player market.
Deutsche Bank said Jio should also be able to increase its spectrum share afford-ably in the upcoming 5G auction, especially with at least one of its competitors (read: VIL) in financial peril”.
\n\n
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